A slew of patents for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistries due to expire in 2022 could shift the face of battery production in the U.S. and Europe.
LFP battery manufacture already comprises 17% of the global EV market and represents a potential path for the mass market, according to the AlixPartners 2022 Global Automotive Outlook released Wednesday.
That’s because universal access to patents, coupled with the escalating prices of raw battery materials, is driving many automakers to home in on the advantages of iron-based batteries. To start, they cost less, don’t use scarce raw materials like cobalt and nickel, and are less likely to catch fire.
There have been warnings that a looming lithium supply shortage could cut the global EV sales forecast in 2030 to 25 million EVs, down from a projected 40 million, according to a report Tuesday from the Advanced Propulsion Centre, a partnership between the U.K. government and automakers.
However, that hasn’t appeared to stop the momentum toward LFP battery manufacture. Even if a lithium bottleneck slows production, the battery chemistry remains easier to produce than the NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) the industry currently favors, as those metals are in short supply, too.
The same organization forecast that a quarter of EVs built in Europe will use LFP battery manufacture. Industry analysts have also become bullish on the prospect of LFP battery manufacture, projecting that the iron-based batteries will power entry-level and cheaper vehicles, while nickel-based cells will be used for higher-end and performance cars.